Chamath Palihapitiya Predicts Top Three AI Models Will Be Open Source
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts that within 12 months the top three models will be open source, with American cloud providers such as Nebius, Iren, Baseten, Together and Fireworks capturing the economic gains. He quotes Guillermo Rauch reporting that open models held 78.4% of token volume on Vercel AI Gateway.
Original post · 1 min read
Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them:
Nebius
Iren
Baseten
Together
Fireworks
Guillermo Rauch @rauchgLooks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).
(Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)



