AI7/10
Nikesh Arora Predicts Battle Over Consumer AI Agents And APIs
Nikesh Arora argues that Apple, Google, TikTok and Amazon may build agents like Muse and that services and marketplace apps will need to open APIs for consumer agents. He says network moats and content moats will respond differently, while commoditized back ends face the greatest risk.
Original post · 1 min read
This will be a bigger battle than anyone anticipates. It is only a matter of time before there is an Apple and Google version of Muse and possibly TikTok, in addition to the frontier LLM agents. Maybe a commerce agent from Amazon.
Every app that is a services, marketplace or commerce app will need to existentially decide to open APIs for consumer agents to interact. Smaller players have no choice. Ad revenues are more than transaction fees, either the consumer benefits or distribution aggregators will demand a higher transaction fare.
I know I don't want an agent for each app. I would like my agent to be able to do tasks I require. We can already see consumers getting trained on that behavior by the frontier labs.
Those with network moats - restaurants, groceries, drivers might be able to withstand for a while, over time convenience and end user experience will win and they will have to align. Content moats (protected by copyright) could decide to allow agents or chose to hold on to the consumer interaction. I suspect other than the feeling of a lack of control, it won't change their economics.
Commoditized back ends will need to worry, insurance, tickets, hotels, services - if they don't adapt new players will.
Every app that is a services, marketplace or commerce app will need to existentially decide to open APIs for consumer agents to interact. Smaller players have no choice. Ad revenues are more than transaction fees, either the consumer benefits or distribution aggregators will demand a higher transaction fare.
I know I don't want an agent for each app. I would like my agent to be able to do tasks I require. We can already see consumers getting trained on that behavior by the frontier labs.
Those with network moats - restaurants, groceries, drivers might be able to withstand for a while, over time convenience and end user experience will win and they will have to align. Content moats (protected by copyright) could decide to allow agents or chose to hold on to the consumer interaction. I suspect other than the feeling of a lack of control, it won't change their economics.
Commoditized back ends will need to worry, insurance, tickets, hotels, services - if they don't adapt new players will.
BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapitalAmazon cuts off Muse.
While I am bullish Meta and Muse, I think many people are overlooking the digital knife fight that’s about to occur
Nobody wants to get commoditized or layered here. Let the games begin
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