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Isaiah Granet Argues Founders Often Quit Too Early

Isaiah Granet argues ambitious people often leave when things get hard, while those who stay through difficulty tend to end up ahead. Using a grocery line metaphor, he discusses when to stay and when to leave, drawing on his experience running a company that raised over $100 million.

Original post · 8 min read
A few thoughts on switching lines.
X ArticleLine Switching
Ambitious people often waste their lives by leaving things too early.
Everyone (i mean everyone) has switched lines at the grocery store and regretted it. You're in one that isn't moving, the one next to you is, so you cross over. Then yours starts, the new one stalls.
I run a company that has raised over a hundred million dollars. I switched lines to start this company. I switched lines, when we pivoted. I am not going to argue that people should never leave.
But I have watched enough of these decisions by now, across many companies and domains. The people who left almost always left at the moment things got hard, and very few who ended up where they had been hoping to go.
The people who stay through the ugly often seem to end up ahead, and they are the ones who now look lucky.
I know people who struggled for years, until it hit. I've also seen overnight pivots to success. There's no one recipe. But below is some sincere thoughts on when to stay, and when to leave. And why switching lines usually ends up failing.
I. Your Line
The line you're standing in is the only one you know from the inside. You know exactly what's wrong with it. You've been watching the slow cashier for six minutes and you have opinions about her. The other line you see from across the store, and from across the store almost anything looks fine, because you can't see the coupons or the price check or the man reaching for his checkbook. You're not learning anything about that line. You're seeing it from an angle that hides its problems.
Nobody switches lines because they've studied both. They switch because their own line's problems are visible. A la.... the grass is always greener... Then they get to the new line and its problems become visible, and now there's another line, one aisle over, that looks fine.
II. It Feels Good
Switching feels like taking control. Staying feels like giving up. So when someone leaves a job at month eight, or a startup changes markets in year two, or a founder rewrites the strategy the week before the old one would have started paying, it registers as bold. People congratulate them. Nobody congratulates you for staying in a line.
But most of these moves are the same move. The thing got hard, another thing looked easier, and the person went toward the thing that looked easier, dressed up as ambition. It's hard to tell the difference from the outside, and sometimes from the inside, because the feeling is identical. If you're leaving right when it got hard, you're probably switching lines.
III. The AI Era
This was always a problem, but it has gotten a lot worse, and I think it's worst for people just starting out.
A new grad today looks at a job market where the fastest money is in AI, where twenty-three-year-olds raise rounds off a demo, where every week someone with fewer years of experience than you announces something enormous. Every line looks shorter than yours. And these lines are visible in a way they never were, because the whole thing plays out on a feed. You see the announcement. You do not see the four years of nothing that came before it, or the two years of nothing that will come after it for most of them.
So people move. They leave the solid job at a company that's learning slowly for the startup that's moving fast. They leave the startup at month ten for the one that just raised. They leave engineering for founding, founding for investing, investing for whatever gets written about next. Each move makes sense on its own. Together they add up to someone who is twenty-nine and has been new somewhere five times and deeply good at nothing.
The AI era rewards depth more than any period I've seen, because the tools make the shallow parts of most jobs free. What's left is the part you only learn by staying. And the era tempts people out of staying more than any period I've seen. That's the trap.
IV. Leave On the Way Up
If you take one thing from this, take this. The best time to leave a company is on the way up, not the way down.
Most people do the opposite. They stay while things are good, because it's comfortable, and leave when things get hard, because it's not. Which means they leave right before the hard part would have taught them something, and right before the company would have needed them most, which is when the people who stayed get the equity and the title and the story.
If you're leaving because it got hard, wait. Hard is where the value is. Hard is the part everyone else quits, and the people who don't quit are the ones with the résumé everyone wants five years later.
If you're leaving because you've won, because you shipped the thing and learned what there was to learn and the next mountain is somewhere else, go. That's the good kind of leaving. You'll leave with people who'll hire you again and a reputation for finishing. You'll also leave with a clear head, which you don't have when you're fleeing.
V. The People Who Stayed
The founders whose stories we tell mostly didn't switch lin… continue on X ↗
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More in Culture & Ideas

How Avery Wang's Shazam Algorithm Identified Songs Without AI

Aakash Gupta explains that Shazam's 2002 system, invented by Stanford PhD Avery Wang, used spectrogram peaks, constellation maps and hash lookups instead of AI, and was published openly in 2003. Apple acquired the company in 2018.

Original post · 2 min read
Shazam could name any song back in 2002, on flip phones, with zero AI. You dialed the number 2580, held your phone up to the speaker, and hung up. 15 seconds later, a text came back with the song name. That same core trick still runs the app today.

The inventor was Avery Wang, a Stanford PhD in audio signal processing. His problem was brutal. Match a short clip recorded on a 2002 cell phone mic, in a noisy bar, against a database of a million songs, in seconds, over a phone call.

His solution treated music as geometry instead of sound.

The algorithm converts audio into a spectrogram, a picture of the song, then throws almost all of it away. It keeps only the peaks, the loudest frequency points at each moment in time. Bar chatter and blown-out speakers can wreck most of a recording. The peaks survive. Shazam only ever needed the peaks.

Those surviving points form what Wang called a constellation map, because it looks like a star field. Pairs of peaks get converted into hash numbers, and identifying a song becomes a dictionary lookup rather than an audio comparison. That made it fast enough to search a million tracks on 2002 hardware.

Wang published the full method openly in 2003 in a paper called "An Industrial-Strength Audio Search Algorithm." Anyone could read exactly how the magic worked. The moat was the database and the deals with carriers, never the secret.

Apple bought the company in 2018 for a reported $400 million. People have tagged over 100 billion songs since the very first one, Jeepster by T. Rex, during the beta in April 2002.

One deterministic signal-processing trick, written before most people had heard the phrase machine learning, and it's still so good that in 2026 everyone assumes it must be AI.
Nathan Ruff @TheNathanRuff
Dude, how did Shazam work 15 years ago without AI!?
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FBI Arrests Fortnite Player Using Epic's Voice Chat Recording

Aakash Gupta reports that the FBI arrested Edward Frith after Epic Games reviewed a reported voice clip of his threat and sent it to authorities, and explains how Fortnite's rolling five-minute voice buffer and reporting system work.

Original post · 2 min read
The FBI just arrested a Fortnite player using a recording the game made of his own voice. He had no idea his headset was taping him. Almost nobody playing does.

Edward Frith, 29, had logged into his account over 1,700 times. In September he told another player that if the FBI showed up at his door he'd shoot them too. Someone in the lobby pressed the report button. Epic reviewed the clip, sent it to the FBI on September 20, and agents arrested him within days.

The design of the system is the clever part.

Recording every player would be a privacy disaster and a storage bill nobody wants. So Epic built voice reporting in 2023 to work like a flight recorder. The audio buffer lives on your own device, overwrites itself every five minutes, and never leaves your machine unless another player in the match reports it. The moment someone does, the clip gets packaged and sent to Epic's safety team with the speakers tagged.

He said it to one stranger in a lobby. That stranger had a button that turns the last five minutes into a federal exhibit.

I was a producer on Fortnite, and this is the part people outside the building never see. Threats of real-world violence got treated with the same urgency as a revenue outage. The game is full of kids, and Epic acts like it.

Fortnite is actually the conservative version of this. It still requires a human to press the button. Call of Duty has run AI moderation directly on live voice chat since 2023, no report needed. Every major platform with a microphone is converging on the same architecture.

The era where anything said into a gaming headset stayed in the lobby is ending one match at a time.
Dexerto @Dexerto
A Fortnite player who threatened to shoot the FBI in voice chat was arrested by the FBI

WagesOfNinja told another user "Let's see if the FBI is going to show up at my door because I'll shoot them motherf**kers too"
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Ohio's New Rome Dissolved Over Speeding Ticket Revenue

Aakash Gupta describes how New Rome, Ohio, and Macks Creek, Missouri, depended on speeding fines for most of their budgets, leading to dissolution in Ohio and bankruptcy in Missouri. Missouri subsequently capped ticket revenue at 20% of city budgets.

Original post · 2 min read
Ohio once dissolved an entire town because its main business was writing speeding tickets.

New Rome had 60 residents and a 14-officer police force. One cop for every four people in town. They collected around $400,000 a year in fines, 92% of the village budget, mostly by working a stretch of road where the speed limit dropped from 45 to 35.

A state audit then found the village was spending 82% of that budget on the police force. The town's only real industry was funding the thing that funded the town. In 2004 a judge ruled New Rome had effectively dissolved itself through corruption and erased it from the map. Its land got absorbed into the neighboring township.

Missouri ran the same experiment with Macks Creek, population 272, sitting on the highway to Lake of the Ozarks. The town wrote 2,900 tickets a year. Eight a day, almost all tourists who would never drive back to fight them. More than 75% of town revenue came from fines.

Then an officer there pulled over a state legislator. He went back to the capitol and passed a law capping how much of a city's budget can come from traffic tickets. Macks Creek lost its revenue stream, went bankrupt, laid off its entire police force, and disincorporated. The IRS seized the town's bank account.

Speed traps cluster wherever a highway full of out-of-towners meets a sudden limit drop in a state that lets the town keep the money. Missouri now caps ticket revenue at 20% of a city's budget. Ohio had to pass a law aimed at one specific village.

A speeding ticket heatmap doubles as a map of who's allowed to keep the fine money.
Terrible Maps @TerribleMaps
Where you’re most likely to get a speeding ticket in the U.S.
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Claire Vo Says Mothers Are Slowest to Adopt AI, Calls for Family-Focused Agents

Claire Vo says many mothers, including those in tech, are slow to adopt AI due to privacy, environmental and workplace concerns. She argues the market is missing agents that manage family logistics like calendars, bills and errands rather than one-off tasks.

Original post · 1 min read
As one of the most tagged AI mother of bots in this thread let me tell you a secret: a lot of moms (even moms in tech) are the slowest f-ing adopters of AI I know.

I’m in a bunch of random mom groups and I hear
- I won’t connect my email cal whatever
- water / data centers etc
- get all AI out of my kids schools
- here is my 10000 word prompt for chat
- I hate AI in my job, burn out, get me out of tech

If you get off X and into the real world, the adoption curve is slow. My YT channel is over 90% men. Women + moms are being left behind, and it’s not because someone hasn’t designed the right agent yet.

Layers here
Sonia Baschez @SoniaBaschez
Silicon Valley keeps building me a husband when what I really want is a wife lol

I don't want an agent that only does one-off, random tasks that are nice but not life-changing: booking flights, making dinner reservations, or buying tickets

I want an AI wife who knows what’s on the family calendar, remembers there’s a birthday party Saturday and we haven’t bought a gift then sends me options, realizes we’re almost out of diapers and buys them, knows which bills are coming up, remembers someone needs a dentist appointment and books it, figures out what the hell we’re eating all week and what w…
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Deedy Explains Shazam's Spectrogram Peak Hashing Method

Deedy Explains Shazam's Spectrogram Peak Hashing Method

Deedy outlines how Shazam extracts high-amplitude spectrogram peaks, hashes them with timestamp and track ID, and performs recognition via a hash table lookup. He notes that his college CS class built a version and recommends the original paper.

Original post · 1 min read
The serious answer to how Shazam worked is it took the peaks of a spectrogram of short clips of every song, find the peaks from the highest amplitude bits, hash it with the value being (time stamp, track id) and then the actual recognition is a hashtable lookup.

We did this for a college CS project. The original paper is fantastic:
Nathan Ruff @TheNathanRuff
Dude, how did Shazam work 15 years ago without AI!?
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Aakash Gupta Offers Formula for Valuing Private Company Equity Grants

Card comparing Google and OpenAI offers

Aakash Gupta shares a formula for valuing private equity grants by discounting quoted equity by payout probability and years to liquidity. He compares a $400K Google grant to a $400K OpenAI grant, estimating the latter at about $242K.

Original post · 1 min read
A $400K grant from Google is worth $400K.

A $400K grant from OpenAI is worth about $242K today.

Same number on the offer letter. You can sell Google stock the day it vests. OpenAI is private, so you sell only when the company runs a tender.

Here's the formula I use for any private grant:

Value = Quoted equity × P(payout) ÷ 1.15^years to liquidity

The 15% is your discount for money you can't touch. For a late-stage company with real revenue and a tender history, P(payout) is 70-90%.

OpenAI, 2 years to a sale at 80% odds: $400K × 0.8 ÷ 1.15² = ~$242K.
1 year at 90%: ~$313K. 3 years at 70%: ~$184K.

Earlier stage gets brutal. A $400K grant at a Series C with an IPO 5 years out at 40% odds: $400K × 0.4 ÷ 1.15^5 = ~$80K.

The formula gives no credit for growth past today's price, and OpenAI has had a lot of it: $157B to $852B in 17 months. So treat the number as your floor.

Compare offers on what the equity is worth today. Then negotiate the gap in base and sign-on.
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