The Computomatix Times

David George @DavidGeorge83

Introducing our State of Markets pt 2, along with a companion podcast where we unpack the data and discuss what comes next.

Tech is the everything cycle.

Supply: putting the buildout in context, just passed railroads as % of GDP. The wisdom of Elon is real: the factory (or the datacenter!) is the product.

Demand: diffusion is so, so early. Median AI vendor spending in the top 1% of companies is 8x that of the top 10%. Only about 30% of S&P 500 companies report a quantified AI impact, which means there’s a substantial opportunity in connecting models to a company's data and workflows. Diffus…

Harry Stebbings @HarryStebbings

Higgsfield is the most untold story in tech.

$1BN in ARR in 18 months. Faster than everyone other than OpenAI and Anthropic.

They spend $4M a month on models. They expect this to be $100K per person per month.

They have 150 people working in a content machine.

They will breed more millionaires than any other company in Kazakh history.

For the first time, @alexmashrabov on the journey to $1BN in ARR. (below)

1. The Power of the Immigrant Founder

Coming from Uzbekistan, Alex was pushed into competitive programming at age eight as his single path to reach the United States. For internation…

Alex Immerman @aleximm

Who Gets Paid When AI Does the Shopping? — No one wants to be disintermediated. It happened to Yelp and Tripadvisor with Google. It happened to everybody, with Apple. As a general rule, marketplaces want to own the customer relationship and

Alexander Taubman @alextaubman

Today, Long Lake completed our $6.3B acquisition of Amex GBT.

Long Lake acquires and transforms generational businesses with AI across the American services economy.

Amex GBT is the travel partner for 17,500 businesses in 140 countries. Last year, Amex GBT booked 35 million trips for 10 million travelers.

This marks Long Lake’s 40th acquisition, and our family of companies now employs nearly 30,000 people.

We founded Long Lake three years ago with the thesis that AI is going to change every company, but there’s a large overhang between AI capabilities and how most businesses leverage AI to…

Ethan Kho @ethanrkho

Retail investors vs. hedge fund managers: who wins?

Ex-Tudor quant PM Tom Costello (20%/yr, 1.4% max drawdown) DEBATES Market Wizard Chris Camillo ($20K → $80M, tells you to expect 70% drawdowns).

Chris Camillo (@ChrisCamillo) turned $20K into ~$80M over 18 years, audited by Jack Schwager for Unknown Market Wizards at 77% annualized. Founded TickerTags, sold to Jefferies. Co-founder of Dumb Money.

Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Started as a quant on JPM's exotic swaps desk. Now CIO at Bedrock Digital Assets.

We cover:
- Why a 50% drawdown is "a car…

Compound248 💰 @compound248

60% of the S&P 500 is in a BEAR market.

For many, it’s a DEEP bear market.

HT: @DonDurrett twitter.com/compound248/status/210287273912013…

Mark Zuckerberg @finkd

To lead this effort, I'm excited that Chirantan "CJ" Desai will join Meta as Chief Enterprise Platform Officer, reporting directly to me. CJ is an experienced enterprise leader with a track record of building full-stack software and delivering results in AI, infrastructure, business applications, and security. He has an extensive industry network that we look forward to partnering with. CJ joins us from MongoDB, where he was CEO and President. Before that he led product and engineering at Cloudflare and spent nearly eight years at ServiceNow, including as President and COO.

Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea

NEW: How the World's Biggest Financial Firms + Tech Co's Build & Protect Their Brands

"75%+ of negative stories start w/ employees"

Ken Griffin & Citadel, Ray Dalio & Bridgewater, Blackstone, Apollo, Meta, Jensen, Elon

$70 TRILLION in client AUM
$17M in fees from ONE podcast

Now a nine-figure business ($175M in revenue !!) Jen @ProsekPR has spent 20+ years advising the most powerful firms & financiers across private markets, asset management, banking, VC & tech on how to build, protect & repair their reputations.

We sat down at @NYSE to break down:
› When to fight bad press vs. stay quiet…

Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag

A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation:

- $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only)

- Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing

- 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks

- Compute demand is doubling roughly every week

- At 5 to 8% daily growth over the months it takes to bring new compute online, Instinct would reach about 100 million users

- On Instinct's own A/B tests, it matches Opus 5 performance at a fraction of the cost

- Noah spends about 40% of his time on compute

- Buying compute at the l…

Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane

From concept to reality.

@SpaceX has successfully deployed Starlink V3 satellites into Earth’s orbit and made contact with them for the first time.

At scale, one Starship carries 60 V3 satellites, the same network capacity as about 20 Falcon 9 launches.

Dick Capital @Dick_Capital

To celebrate Dick Capital’s one-year anniversary on Substack, we’re running a special offer for the next week. ♥️

In one year, we’ve become one of the top publications in Finance, uncovered some of the market’s biggest themes before they went mainstream, and watched subscribers completely change their financial lives.

Thank you to everyone who has been part of the journey.

Until October 4, you can subscribe for less than a dollar a day and join us.

Full post + special offer available through the link in our bio.

Mike Fishbein @mfishbein

Databricks CEO @alighodsi went off on @a16z pod about enterprise AI adoption:

"They're just so far behind in the adoption curve of actually automating things and getting value out of this stuff."

Ali says most companies are still just using chatbots. There's hardly any agentic transformation.

Why is that?

"The models are smart enough, but they just don't have the context that exists inside of any organization."

"They have not been in every meeting. They don't know what's in everybody's heads. They don't know all the processes."

"If you just fused that and gave that context into the AI mo…

Eugene Ye @gpugene

Let's talk about trading compute — Do you guys see what’s happening in the market right now?
Deals are clearing above $24/gpu/hr for some B300s with pricing for short term (<1 year) compute hovering above $7. Actually by the time you

GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg

$5T opportunity: AI Roll Ups — I'll make the case why you should buy a business and use AI agents to 3x EBITDA. By the end of this dead simple guide, you'll know how to find the right business, buy it, and run it with agents, down

Lima @limalemonnn

Charlie Munger’s 25 Rules for Avoiding Costly Decisions — In 2005, 81-year-old investor Charlie Munger revised a lifetime of observations into 25 psychological tendencies that explain why intelligent people make ruinous decisions.
Every person making an

Fireside Alpha @firesidealpha

Satya Nadella warns a frontier model told to optimize working capital may fake the books, a new type of insider risk

"One of the fascinating things right now is the insider risk. I mean, think about it, right? If you're sitting in an enterprise, this is all test-time compute, by the way, right? So it's not like, oh, it's going to only happen in some training run."

"It can happen for a very mundane task that I give one of these frontier models inside an enterprise, where I say, you know, I don't know, telling David this, or suppose I say, hey, go optimize my working capital."

"It may fake my…

Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest

Gokul (@gokulr) explains why utility-based software companies like Zendesk are more exposed to AI than systems of record like NetSuite, and why public markets aren't distinguishing between the two:

"The software companies that should be the most worried right now is where they are pricing the product based on utility. Zendesk is a good example.

Instead of paying for 50 Zendesk seats, you can pay for 20 and I can have 30 AI agents sitting next to Zendesk.

For these companies you need to change your pricing model to be based on outcome. It's going to be hard for them to stay public.

The comp…

Harry Stebbings @HarryStebbings

Amazon is right to block Muse.

“One, you do not get any revenue from your ad business, and Amazon’s ad business is now larger than their e-commerce profits.

The second thing is the basket size gets reduced. If I do this, I just order the thing.

If I block them, they will probably come to me anyway, because I am Amazon. So I have leverage.” @rodriscoll

Love to hear your thoughts @juokaz @FredaDuan @scotwingo @harleyf